- CryptoQuant experts assessed the state of the bitcoin market.
- According to them, the asset has weathered most of the panic selling.
- They believe that the current decline of the first cryptocurrency differs from previous downturns.
CryptoQuant analysts stated that the bitcoin market has entered a critical phase of locking in losses, but the current structure of the cycle differs from previous crashes. According to them, the intensity of sales is gradually weakening, which may indicate that most of the "weak hands" have exited the market.
Realized losses are declining despite pressure on the market
CryptoQuant drew attention to the 30-day net realized profit/loss metric, which reflects the financial result locked in by investors.
During the first big wave of selling this year, the market absorbed about 400,000 BTC of realized losses. Now, despite the fact that bitcoin is trading near similar price levels, this figure stands at about 234,000 BTC.
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In the analysts' opinion, this discrepancy is significant:
"This indicates that the marginal seller is becoming less and less significant. A substantial part of the supply formed by panic selling may already have left the market during the first wave of the decline."
The experts noted that the same price levels no longer provoke the same capitulation as before.
This is additionally confirmed by the Buy/Sell Pressure Delta indicator. Although seller pressure persists, it has not yet reached the extreme values characteristic of historical phases of mass capitulation.
According to CryptoQuant's assessment, such a structure is often observed in situations where the market has already gotten rid of most weak participants but still needs one more final test to push out investors who remain in deep unrealized loss.
Has the bottom been formed?
The analysts emphasized that the annual net realized profit/loss metric has not yet reached the extreme negative values that accompanied the key bottoms of previous cycles.
At the same time, this does not mean the inevitable continuation of the crash.
"The market is probably in a late stage of stress: the number of weak hands has decreased, the intensity of loss realization is declining, but there is no final confirmation of bottom formation yet."
The main question remains whether bitcoin will be able to stabilize at current levels while volumes of realized losses continue to decline. If the price stops updating local lows amid fading sales, this could become a strong signal of seller exhaustion.
If, however, bitcoin continues to fall and volumes of realized losses again rise sharply, the market may face a final wave of capitulation before the ultimate formation of the bottom.
CryptoQuant's assessment appeared against the backdrop of mixed forecasts regarding the further movement of the market. Earlier, Wintermute analysts called the recent growth of crypto assets merely a technical rebound after a large-scale correction and allowed for bitcoin to drop to the $50,000 level.
At the same time, other CryptoQuant experts drew attention to the SSRR and CVDD models, which already point to the formation of a zone of potential cyclical bottom in the range of around $48,000.
An additional factor of uncertainty was the June FOMC meeting, after which the US Federal Reserve left the interest rate unchanged, and bitcoin briefly dropped below $64,000.
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Despite this, CryptoQuant data also indicate the emergence of the first signs of accumulation of the asset by large investors, even amid record selling pressure in the altcoin market.
Source: Incrypted
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