Рынки прогнозов установили абсолютный рекорд на фоне IPO SpaceX и сделки США с Ираном

According to a16z crypto, prediction markets had their best week in history after a series of high-profile events.
In particular, traders wagered $10.8 billion, and open interest reached a record of almost $1.5 billion.
Overall, capital in the sector grew sixfold over the year.

Prediction markets set a new all-time record: in the week ending June 15, 2026 trading volume on such platforms reached $10.8 billion. This was reported by a16z crypto.

The segment's rapid growth came amid a number of high-profile events — from SpaceX's IPO and the deal between the US and Iran to the NBA Finals, the Stanley Cup and the start of the World Cup.

Prediction markets move beyond a niche segment

According to a16z crypto, just a year ago a typical weekly trading volume on prediction markets was around $500 million, and even the most active periods rarely exceeded $1 billion. In the autumn of 2025 this figure crossed the $1 billion mark, in winter it exceeded $4 billion, and in the spring of 2026 it settled in the $6-7 billion range.

Now even a relatively quiet week surpasses the best results of the entire market a year ago.

For example, after the US presidential elections ended, Polymarket began to lose part of the market, but by the end of 2025, together with Kalshi, they were processing roughly equal volumes of bets and became the industry's main competitors:

$13 billion a month: Keyrock analysts noted the active growth of prediction markets 23.12.2025 Read

In parallel, the open interest figure — the total volume of active contracts that remain open — also set a record. By the end of the week to June 15 it reached $1.48 billion, which was the second consecutive all-time high.

Unlike trading volume, which reflects participants' current activity, open interest reflects the capital that remains engaged in the market and at risk. Over the year this figure grew roughly sixfold, which indicates a shift by users from short-term speculation to longer investment positions.

a16z crypto noted that major news events attract new participants, but more and more traders stay on the platforms even after the news cycle ends, trading contracts on political, economic, sports, cultural and crypto events.

Geopolitics, demand and forecasts for prediction markets

One of the key drivers of interest in prediction markets was the geopolitical tension around Iran. Sygnum Bank's chief investment officer Fabian Dori called prediction markets a new «macro radar» for crypto investors.

According to Dori, professional market participants increasingly use platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi to assess the probability of political decisions, military conflicts or regulatory changes.

Separately, analysts drew attention to Kalshi's rapid growth. Over the past year its weekly trading volume increased roughly 30-fold — from $100 million to $3 billion.

In experts' view, the platform is gradually turning into a tool not only for retail traders, but also for hedge funds and professional market participants.

At the same time, the segment is starting to integrate into the crypto ecosystem. Thus, the derivatives exchange Hyperliquid launched HIP-4 — a new format of contracts on event outcomes. The first market was a forecast of bitcoin's price on a specific date.

HIP-4: How do prediction markets work on Hyperliquid? 07.05.2026 Read

The market maker Wintermute also joined the sector. The company announced that it would provide liquidity for prediction platforms and explained the move by the need to form higher-quality price signals.

Among the participants in the prediction markets segment, the crypto exchanges Binance, Gemini, Coinbase and others are also worth mentioning. You can read about how these markets work on CEXes in the article:

The trend spreads: how do prediction markets work on CEXes? 25.05.2026 Read

Meanwhile, investment companies and banks are increasingly revising their estimates of the industry's potential.

Citizens Financial Group calculated that prediction markets currently generate about $2 billion in revenue per year. By 2030 this figure could exceed $10 billion.

An even more optimistic forecast was given by Bernstein analysts. By their estimates, the total volume of the prediction market could reach $1 trillion by 2030.

Experts expect that as early as 2026 the sector's volume will amount to about $240 billion. At the same time, Kalshi and Polymarket alone, by their calculations, have already accounted for about $60 billion in trading since the start of the year.

Large venture funds are also showing interest in the industry. According to Fortune, the company Paradigm is working on creating a specialized trading terminal for prediction markets. The fund is also exploring the possibility of launching its own market-making services and indices for this segment.

Regulatory uncertainty over the status of prediction markets

Despite the rapid growth, the sector continues to face regulatory challenges.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly supported prediction markets and stated that regulators should foster the development of this area. In one of his posts he also again called the US the «crypto capital of the world» and criticized attempts by individual states to restrict the activity of such platforms.

In parallel, the CFTC significantly softened its approach to overseeing the crypto industry and prediction market operators. Thus, the agency reduced the number of investigations against crypto companies and began to treat this segment more favorably.

At the same time, the US Senate unanimously banned senators and their staff from trading on prediction markets.

Prediction market users lose more than sports bettors — report 25.03.2026 Read

In addition, pressure on the sector is intensifying beyond the US. In June the Spanish authorities ordered the blocking of Polymarket and Kalshi due to the lack of required licenses, equating their activity with gambling.

Earlier, similar restrictions or bans on Polymarket were introduced by Ukraine, Argentina, Portugal, Romania and Indonesia. In the US, Kalshi also faces lawsuits in individual states over contracts on sporting events.

Disclaimer: This material is for informational purposes only and is not advertising for gambling or a call to participate in it. Polymarket is mentioned solely within the framework of a digital asset market review and is not intended to popularize or promote the platform.

Source: Incrypted