Spain's national team enters its first match at the 2026 FIFA World Cup against Cape Verde as the unequivocal favorite. The Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets put a Spanish win at more than 90% and at the same time name the team as the main contender for the title.
The tournament is hosted by the USA, Canada, and Mexico, and the expanded format has gathered 48 teams for the first time. For Cape Verde, this is a debut at the world championship, whereas Spain is the reigning European champion and the winner of the 2010 World Cup.
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Bets on the Spain — Cape Verde match
On the Polymarket platform, the opening match of Group H drew about $14.59 million. The contract on a Spain win trades at $0.93, on a draw — at about $0.055, on a Cape Verde win — at just $0.023. The contract price roughly reflects the probability of the outcome, so the market gives Spain an overwhelming edge. On the handicap line, Spain runs with a −2,5 handicap, and participants set the total at a 3.5-goal threshold.
The Kalshi platform offers a similar breakdown in percentages: a Spain win is rated at 92%, a draw — at 7%, and a Cape Verde success — at 3%. The market volume on this match on Kalshi was about $8.29 million.
The picture is consistent with expert forecasts: the Spaniards dominate in squad and class, and most analysts expect a confident win for the favorite. Cape Verde has reached the world championship for the first time in history and is quoted as a clear underdog.
Spain leads the bets to win the tournament
Polymarket puts Spain at the top of the title predictions: the probability of winning the 2026 World Cup is rated at 16.3%. Next come France (16.2%), Portugal (10.8%), and England (9.7%), with Argentina rounding out the top five at 8.1%. The total volume of the winner-betting market on Polymarket has exceeded $2.35 billion.
Forecasts on Kalshi confirm the lineup: Spain — first with 17.4%, France — second with 16.4%, Portugal — third with 11.6%. The market volume on Kalshi was about $283 million. Both platforms place the Spaniards at the head of the list of contenders to win the 2026 World Cup.
Source: BeInCrypto
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