The digital asset market rose amid US inflation data and news of a preliminary agreement between the US and Iran. Wintermute experts pointed this out.
Bitcoin held above $66,000 after a drop at the start of the month. The positive dynamics are linked to a slowdown in the core consumer price index, the presumed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the lifting of the American blockade of Iranian ports.
US inflation came in at 4.2% year-on-year. This matched analysts' forecasts. At the same time, the core figure fell to 2.9%, signaling a slowdown in price growth.
An additional factor was information about a preliminary agreement between the US and Iran. The event is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. Against this backdrop, Brent crude fell to $80, and government bond yields declined.
Bitcoin gained 1.9% over the week, while Ethereum showed weak dynamics and dipped 0.4%. Despite the local rebound, capital inflow into crypto assets remains low. The spot ETF and stablecoin segments are seeing outflows. Institutional investors so far prefer the stock market.
Analysts called the recent rise from $60,000 a "bear market rally." In their view, the start of a sustained trend toward $100,000 requires structural changes in liquidity. There are currently no signs of new money flowing into the market, so sideways movement is expected over the summer.
The key event of the week will be the Fed meeting. Investors are awaiting the regulator's updated forecasts. If the authorities' rhetoric turns out to be dovish due to cheap oil, the growth of risk assets will continue. Otherwise, the market may once again test levels below $60,000. Wintermute advised watching ETF inflows rather than news headlines.
The specialists concluded that until sustained inflows into ETFs and stablecoins appear, it is premature to talk about long-term growth. Consolidation remains the base-case scenario for the summer.
As a reminder, Galaxy Research concluded that Bitcoin's current market cycle has not yet reached its low, and the price could fall into the $40,000-46,000 range.
Source: ForkLog
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