Kalshi's head Tarek Mansour believes that the main threat to his prediction platform comes not from Polymarket at all. In a conversation with Front Office Sports he noted that he is much more wary of large players from the trading and betting sphere.
Among the competitors he is watching, Mansour named the derivatives giant CME Group, broker Robinhood, and bookmaker operators. Such a statement changes the usual picture, in which the rivalry between Kalshi and Polymarket looked like a fight between two sole leaders.
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Why Mansour does not see a rival in Polymarket
Kalshi leads among licensed American prediction platforms. According to Bank of America analysts' estimate, its share is about 91%. Polymarket is in second place, and Underdog is third.
The substantial lead allows Mansour to view competition differently.
If you look at trading volume, the gap narrows. Over the last 30 days, trades worth about $9.8 billion went through Kalshi, and $9.9 billion through Polymarket, according to DeFi Rate.
However, by key metrics Kalshi still leads. It holds about $1 billion of the $1.6 billion total open interest in the industry — and roughly 97% of all active markets.
"When it comes to competition, honestly, I think about Polymarket much less than about the others," the FOS outlet quotes Kalshi's Tarek Mansour as saying in its article.
A wide range of rivals
Mansour first of all singled out CME Group, which in December introduced the FanDuel Predicts service together with the sports betting platform FanDuel. In this app one can enter into contracts on sports events and economic indicators.
Robinhood also adds uncertainty to the overall picture. At first, in 2025, the broker opened its own prediction hub on Kalshi's technology base. However, later the company began redirecting part of the trades on sports events and the World Cup to Rothera — its own venue launched together with Susquehanna.
DraftKings, Novig, and Coinbase are also entering the prediction market, so it is already difficult to name a clear contender for second place.
Source: BeInCrypto
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