On the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi, the U.S. and Brazil national teams have become clear favorites in their matches at the 2026 World Cup. At the same time, a frenzy flared up on the Kalshi exchange around the US Open golf tournament, which drew hundreds of millions of dollars.
Prediction markets are increasingly reflecting the course of the 2026 World Cup: after bright opening matches, the odds of the favorites strengthened noticeably, while trading volumes are measured in millions of dollars.
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USA — a confident favorite against Australia
In the Group D match against Australia, the U.S. team is a clear favorite. Both Polymarket and Kalshi rate the Americans' win at 62%, while a draw is at 22% and an Australian win at just 18%. The contract on a U.S. win is trading at $0.61 on Polymarket.
Such odds formed after a confident start by the Americans, who crushed Paraguay 4:1. Australia also began the tournament with a win, unexpectedly beating Turkey 2:0, so both teams came to the head-to-head encounter with three points.
The market volume for this match on Kalshi exceeded $15.9 million, reflecting high interest from fans. A win in the head-to-head encounter effectively opens the road to the playoffs, so bets on it are especially active.
Brazil and the other matches of the day
Brazil looks like an even more clear-cut favorite in the match against Haiti. Polymarket rates the Brazilians' win at 89% at a contract price of $0.89, while Haiti accounts for only about 4% and a draw for 8%. The market volume for this game was about $3.64 million.
In the other matches of the day, the picture also favors the stronger teams. In the Scotland — Morocco pairing, the Moroccans are favorites with odds of $0.58, while in the Turkey — Paraguay match the Turks are slightly ahead with a contract price of $0.47.
Brazil, however, did not start the tournament perfectly, drawing with Morocco in the first round. That is why a confident win over Haiti is extremely important for the five-time champions.
Source: BeInCrypto
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