• Despite Trump's statements about agreements with Iran, experts doubt the deal will succeed.
• According to the FT, the president made several significant mistakes in the conflict.
• Among them — a misreading of the adversary's position, worsening relations with allies and vague goals.

US President Donald Trump may face unexpected consequences of his policy toward Iran, despite the fact that Washington initially had a significant advantage over Tehran. This is the conclusion reached by Financial Times observers analyzing the course of the conflict, the recent agreements between the parties and the reaction of international markets. 

In the view of the FT's authors, Trump's administration made a number of strategic mistakes that could complicate the achievement of long-term US goals in the region, even after a series of military operations and the signing of a memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran.

Military superiority did not guarantee a political victory

The Financial Times article notes that Iran entered the conflict in a much weaker position compared to the US and Israel. However, the outcome of the standoff may prove less clear-cut than expected at the start of the campaign.

Analysts have developed a «playbook» of Trump's strategy in geopolitical conflicts 04.03.2026 Read

The publication's authors point out that Washington's goals repeatedly changed. Among those cited were:

• destroying Iran's nuclear program;
• preventing the creation of nuclear weapons;
• regime change;
• limiting the ballistic program;
• destroying the country's naval potential.

The FT believes that such vagueness of goals weakened the US negotiating position and made it harder to assess the campaign's real results.

The publication pays particular attention to the fact that over time Trump's key goal effectively became restoring safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the most important routes for global energy trade.

In addition, the article notes that one of Trump's key mistakes was a misreading of Tehran's position. Washington's threats and harsh rhetoric did not force Tehran to change course, since the Iranian leadership perceived Trump's statements more as political pressure than as a real strategy.

Another of Trump's mistakes is said to be the worsening of relations with allies. In particular, Washington did not hold broad consultations with partners before launching the operation against Iran, and the lack of unequivocal support from them came as a surprise to the White House. 

At the same time, even Israel, which had long advocated tougher action against Tehran, remained dissatisfied with the results, since the current agreements may allow Iran to retain part of its positions in the region.

The conflict has already affected the crypto market

Geopolitical tension between the US and Iran has repeatedly been a driver of volatility in financial markets.

At the end of May 2026 the parties exchanged strikes, which jeopardized the ceasefire regime. Against this backdrop bitcoin briefly fell to $72,728, while stock and crypto markets shifted into correction.

Later, on June 10, after the US president signed the Secure America Act, Trump declared his readiness to launch new strikes on Iran and criticized Tehran for dragging out the negotiation process.

However, within a few days the markets changed their mood. On June 15 Trump announced an agreement with Iran and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. After that the crypto market staged a recovery, and bitcoin's price returned above $65,000 and later exceeded the $66,000 mark.

On June 17 US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding that provides for extending the ceasefire by another 60 days with the possibility of further prolongation.

The first round of talks between the US and Iran after the signing of the memorandum was due to start in the Swiss resort of Bürgenstock on June 19. However, the meeting was postponed indefinitely. According to the official version, the reason was «logistical issues».

At the same time, the White House's official account continues to claim that «Iran is finished».

Trump stressed that it was Iran that was interested in the talks and is in a significantly weaker position after the conflict.

«We did not meet out of desperation — it was Iran that was desperate. For Iran it is all over! We will wait for the 60-day period to end. They will not get any money, not even ten cents», the president wrote.

At the same time, US Vice President JD Vance said the deal is already delivering results and remains in force.

The Financial Times also draws attention to disputes over the terms of the memorandum. In particular, critics of Trump's administration question the wisdom of potential concessions to Iran in exchange for regional stability and guarantees of shipping safety.

Among the possible compromises being discussed within the negotiation process are:

• partial preservation of Iran's ballistic program;
• continuation of the civilian nuclear program;
• unfreezing of frozen assets;
• easing of the sanctions regime.

According to the FT's interlocutors among diplomats, former officials and analysts, the chances of reaching a full-fledged long-term agreement so far remain limited.

Recall that earlier the US authorities confiscated $1 billion in crypto assets from Iran.

Source: Incrypted