In March 2026, Google Quantum AI published a paper according to which breaking the security of Ethereum accounts will require 20 times fewer computing resources than previously assumed. The quantum threat has stopped being a hypothesis: timelines have already been named, and so far only one blockchain network is openly preparing for it.
Previous research estimated the breaking of the electronic signature scheme that protects every Ethereum account at tens of thousands of logical qubits. Google's work lowered that estimate to roughly 1,200. The company considers such a forecast realistic enough to set an internal deadline of 2029 for the transition to quantum-resistant systems.
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Why the new power forecast changes the situation
Ethereum uses ECDSA (the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm) to verify every transaction. By sending it, an account reveals its public key in the network. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer can compute the private key from the public key and drain the wallet.
Today's quantum computers cannot do this. But 1,200 logical qubits is a quite concrete benchmark that engineers can already aim for. About 0.1% of the funds in the Ethereum network sit at addresses with exposed public keys — such wallets are vulnerable today.
The quantum threat to Ethereum holders affects not only them. Validator signatures, data availability guarantees and the zero-knowledge proof systems on which most rollup protocols rest are all at risk. They all rely on mathematics that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer will break.
What the Ethereum team is doing
In January 2026, the Ethereum Foundation assembled a separate Post-Quantum Security team led by Tom Korаtje. The team works completely openly — all results can be viewed on the project's website. One of its key researchers, Justin Drake, ranks the quantum threat among the main strategic tasks.
Source: BeInCrypto
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