The price of the first cryptocurrency exceeded $67,000 following reports of a truce between the US and Iran. Despite the rise, derivatives metrics signal market participants' distrust of the current rally.
At the time of writing, the price had corrected to $65,626 (-1.3% over 24 hours).
The annualized premium on bitcoin futures stood at 2%. The indicator has remained below the neutral level of 4% for three months. In the options market, put contracts are trading at a 16% premium to call options. This points to investors' fears of a possible decline.
The sharp price spike led to the liquidation of short positions worth $210 million. Quotes were supported by an inflow of $86 million into US spot bitcoin ETFs. The ongoing accumulation of assets by Strategy is also influencing the market.
At the macroeconomic level, the price of Brent crude fell to a hundred-day low. The Nasdaq index rose 3% amid SpaceX's IPO. After the listing, the capitalization of Elon Musk's firm reached $2.6 trillion.
Bearish sentiment in the derivatives market persists. Consolidating the price above $70,000 is possible if energy prices decline further and the Fed eases its policy.
Long-term accumulation
On June 11, bitcoin's Sharpe ratio fell to -20. Since 2015, such a decline in the metric has always pointed to reaching a price bottom and the start of an accumulation phase.
The Sharpe ratio measures risk-adjusted returns. A deeply negative value of the short-term indicator means not just low profitability but the maximum loss per unit of volatility — that is, a sharp and deep decline. For many participants, this is the point of capitulation.
The signal is confirmed by on-chain data. Since February, exchange reserves have shrunk by 80,000 BTC — to 2.71 million coins. At the same time, demand from long-term investors has doubled. Over the first half of June, accumulation addresses bought 240,000 BTC.
The asset's price has remained below the 100-week moving average for 133 days now. The indicator line is at the $88,466 mark.
In past cycles, bitcoin traded below this line for an average of 362 days before the start of sustained growth. The longest period was 532 days after the market crash of 2022. Current figures indicate that the consolidation phase could last another few months.
Recall that on June 15, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan urged long-term investors to fixate less on finding the bottom and to look toward bitcoin's next bull cycle.
Source: ForkLog
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