Grayscale analysts consider the AAVE token "undervalued." The base target for the coming year is $179 at the current rate of about $75.
The 12-month forecast includes three scenarios: base — $179.11, bearish — $90.91, bullish — $270.57. The potential growth from current levels to the target is about 132%.
Grayscale expects that in 2026 the protocol could generate about $60 million in revenue. In the analysts' opinion, an increasing share of Aave's revenue depends on activity with stablecoins rather than on more volatile crypto assets.
The firm estimated the project's fair capitalization at $1.2 billion-1.5 billion, applying a 20-25x multiple as to a fintech company.
Grayscale's base scenario for AAVE relies on five positive factors:
- rapid growth of the stablecoin market;
- major Horizon partnerships;
- the return of previously withdrawn deposits;
- an inflow of users through the Aave App;
- the launch of new institutional solutions on the V4 architecture.
In the company's opinion, AAVE belongs to assets with "cash flow" on par with UNI and other DeFi protocol tokens.
"DeFi is no longer just speculation. Since 2023 decentralized protocols have generated almost $25 billion in cumulative fees from real users. DEXs, lending, staking, derivatives — this is a real industry with steady income," Grayscale noted.
At the same time, price multiples in the DeFi lending sphere have declined significantly. Across the segment, differentiated business models and attractive valuations remain.
Recall that in June the Aave developers revised asset listing standards after the April incident with rsETH, which put the project at risk of bad debt of hundreds of millions of dollars.
Source: ForkLog
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