• Despite Trump's statements about agreements with Iran, experts doubt the deal will succeed.
• According to FT, the president made several substantial mistakes in the conflict.
• Among them are a mistaken understanding of the opponent's position, deteriorating relations with allies and blurred goals.

US President Donald Trump may face unexpected consequences of his policy toward Iran, despite the fact that Washington initially had a significant advantage over Tehran. That is the conclusion reached by Financial Times observers as they analyzed the course of the conflict, the recent agreements between the parties and the reaction of international markets. 

In the opinion of the FT's authors, the Trump administration made a number of strategic mistakes that could complicate the achievement of long-term US goals in the region, even after a series of military operations and the signing of a memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran.

Military advantage did not guarantee political victory

The Financial Times piece notes that Iran entered the conflict in a significantly weaker position compared with the US and Israel. However, the outcome of the standoff may turn out to be less clear-cut than was expected at the start of the campaign.

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The publication's authors point out that Washington's goals changed repeatedly. Among them were named:

• destroying Iran's nuclear program;
• preventing the creation of nuclear weapons;
• changing the political regime;
• limiting the ballistic program;
• destroying the country's naval potential.

The FT believes that such vagueness of goals weakened the US negotiating position and made it harder to assess the real results of the campaign.

The publication pays special attention to the fact that, over time, the key goal for Trump effectively became restoring safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the most important routes for the global energy trade.

In addition, the piece notes that one of Trump's key mistakes was a mistaken understanding of Tehran's position. Washington's threats and tough rhetoric did not force Tehran to change course, since the Iranian leadership perceived Trump's statements more as political pressure than as a real strategy.

Deteriorating relations with allies is named as another of Trump's mistakes. In particular, Washington did not hold broad consultations with partners before the start of the operation against Iran, and the absence of unequivocal support on their part came as a surprise to the White House. 

At the same time, even Israel, which had long advocated tougher action toward Tehran, remained dissatisfied with the results, since the current agreements may allow Iran to retain part of its positions in the region.

The conflict has already affected the crypto market

Geopolitical tension between the US and Iran has repeatedly become a driver of volatility on financial markets.

At the end of May 2026 the parties exchanged strikes, which jeopardized the ceasefire regime. Against this backdrop bitcoin momentarily dropped to $72,728, and the stock and cryptocurrency markets shifted into correction.

Later, on June 10, after the US president signed the Secure America Act, Trump declared his readiness to deliver new strikes on Iran and criticized Tehran for dragging out the negotiation process.

However, within a few days the markets changed mood. On June 15 Trump announced agreements with Iran and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. After this the crypto market demonstrated a recovery, and the price of bitcoin returned above $65,000 and later exceeded the $66,000 mark.

On June 17 US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding that provides for extending the ceasefire regime by another 60 days with the possibility of further prolongation.

The first round of negotiations between the US and Iran after the signing of the memorandum was due to start as early as June 19 in Bürgenstock, Switzerland. However, the meeting was postponed indefinitely. According to the official version, the reason was "logistical issues."

At the same time, the White House's official account continues to claim that "Iran is done."

Trump emphasized that it was Iran that was interested in negotiations and is in a significantly weaker position after the conflict.

"We did not meet out of desperation — it was Iran that was desperate. For Iran it's all over! We will wait for the end of the 60-day period. They will not get any money, not even ten cents," the president wrote.

At the same time, US Vice President JD Vance stated that the agreement is already bringing results and remains in force.

The Financial Times also draws attention to disputes around the terms of the memorandum. In particular, critics of the Trump administration question the advisability of potential concessions to Iran in exchange for stability in the region and guarantees of shipping safety.

Among the possible compromises being discussed within the negotiation process are:

• partial preservation of Iran's ballistic program;
• continuation of the civilian nuclear program;
• unfreezing of frozen assets;
• easing of the sanctions regime.

In the opinion of the FT's interlocutors among diplomats, former officials and analysts, the chances of reaching a full-fledged long-term agreement remain limited for now.

Recall that earlier the American authorities confiscated $1 billion in crypto assets from Iran.

Source: Incrypted