The US still retains a small advantage over China in Quantum Information Science, Engineering, and Technology (QISET). However, the gap is narrowing and could disappear within a few years, according to the report The Quantum Competition by the analytical organization Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP). The authors compared the positions of the two countries across five areas: innovation; industrial potential; market ecosystem; talent pool; government levers. The US leads in four categories, while China surpasses its competitor in the last one thanks to a centralized strategy, state support and long-term planning. “Overall, the US retains a small advantage in QISET thanks to its strengths in innovation, software, private capital and certain elements of the supply chain. However, this gap is narrowing,” the report states. SCSP notes that leadership in quantum technologies will depend not only on scientific breakthroughs. The decisive factor will be the ability to translate research into scalable, sustainable and functioning systems. Where the US leads Among the strengths of the US the authors counted scientific influence, quantum software, private capital and certain elements of supply chains. Researchers from the US accounted for 35% of the most cited scientific publications on quantum technologies for 2025. These are works in the top 10% by number of citations in specialized journals. China’s share was 23%. According to SCSP’s estimate, the PRC’s figure doubled over the decade, so the States are not losing ground in absolute terms but are facing rapid growth from their competitor. A separate part of the race is quantum error correction. This is a set of methods that allows detecting and correcting failures in quantum computations. In this area the US retains an advantage both in publications and in patents: 55% of the most cited patents are associated with American authors versus 18% for China. The software ecosystem remains a strength of the US. Developers around the world mostly use American tools such as Qiskit from IBM and Cirq from Google. The first is a kit for developing quantum programs, the second performs a similar role for quantum algorithms and simulations. According to SCSP’s estimate, in December 2025 the number of Qiskit downloads exceeded 450,000. By comparison, the Chinese package PyQPanda, developed by Origin Quantum, was downloaded just over 4,000 times. The market section of the report states that by 2024 the volume of announced private investment in the US quantum sector reached approximately $5.3 billion. By 2025, American entities had deployed between 39 and 73 quantum computers. For China a range of 15–18 systems is given, but it is noted that the estimate may be understated due to lower transparency. Where China is closing the gap SCSP records China’s rapid progress in materials, algorithms, manufacturing and quantum networks. In the segment of advanced quantum materials, Chinese researchers account for about 50% of the strongest publications versus approximately 20% for American ones. According to the authors, this is the result of a long-term strategy in which universities, state laboratories and national structures work in a coordinated manner. China has also strengthened its positions in quantum algorithms. In 2025, the country overtook the US in the corresponding patents at a ratio of roughly 5:2. At the same time, publications in this area are still more often associated with the States: the share of American authors declined from 40% to 30% over the past five years, while the Chinese share grew to 20%. China’s most noticeable lead is in quantum networks. The country demonstrated quantum key distribution (Quantum Key Distribution, QKD) over fiber lines and relays with a total length of 6,277 miles. QKD uses quantum principles to exchange encryption keys and detect interception attempts. The PRC also deployed a direct quantum communication network spanning 186 miles. In the US, comparable projects are so far limited to regional test segments: 124 miles in the Chicago Quantum Network, 98 miles at Brookhaven National Laboratory and about 13 miles between Illinois and Indiana. The report’s authors clarify that the US has not made QKD a priority. The country’s National Security Agency pointed not only to the capabilities but also to the difficulties of implementing such technology. Manufacturing and personnel became a risk for the US In the industrial section, SCSP points to a gap in the cost of scaling. In 2025, the construction of high-grade cleanrooms in the US cost $800-1000 per square foot. In China such facilities cost about $150 per square foot, and individual regional authorities subsidized up to 30% of construction costs. Cleanrooms are needed to manufacture quantum equipment: they reduce the level of contaminants that can disrupt the operation of sensitive devices. At the same time, the US retains advantages in certain bottlenecks of supply chains. The report names helium-3, cryogenic systems, dilution refrigerators and specialized lasers. China is developing domestic alternatives, but part of the critical infrastructure is still more strongly represented in America and allied countries. The personnel bloc also plays toward narrowing the gap. In the US, 61 educational institutions offer programs in quantum information sciences and engineering. The American system remains open to foreign researchers: about half of the doctoral degrees in physics are obtained by people with other citizenship. China’s advantage is scale. Since 2020, the country has annually produced more than 50% more doctors of science in STEM fields than the US. Since 2000, the Chinese output of doctors of science in these fields has grown three times faster than the American one. Money and strategy SCSP estimates state funding of quantum technologies in China at approximately $15 billion by the end of 2024. By comparison, similar US investments in quantum research and development over the past seven years amounted to about $6 billion. The report notes that the American model remains decentralized: universities, national laboratories, startups and large technology companies develop different hardware and software approaches. The Chinese model, by contrast, relies on state laboratories, regional industrial hubs and long-term plans. According to SCSP’s estimate, neither model is unconditionally superior. The outcome of the race will depend on which system more quickly solves engineering problems and translates laboratory results into infrastructure, products and standards. https://forklog.com/cryptorium/chto-takoe-kvantovoe-prevoshodstvo-poleznost-i-preimushhestvo As a reminder, in October 2024 the media reported that Chinese scientists had carried out “the world’s first effective attack” on a widely used encryption algorithm using a quantum computer.
Source: ForkLog
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