- CryptoQuant analysts named two models that revealed a potential bitcoin bottom zone.
- The SSRR indicator moved into the «red zone» for the first time in this cycle.
- Meanwhile, CVDD at $48,000 is considered the key fundamental boundary of the cycle.
The Adjusted Sell-side Risk Ratio (SSRR) indicator moved into the «red zone» for the first time since the previous cycle during bitcoin's drop to $60,000. At the same time, the CVDD model points to a structural cycle bottom at around $48,000, forming a key lower boundary of bitcoin's current market range. This was reported by CryptoQuant.
The market enters a «deep stress» zone: SSRR and CVDD signals
Analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that during the drop to $60,000 the share of supply in loss exceeded the share of profitable supply, which moved the SSRR metric into a «new zone of deep stress and accumulation».
Key observations on the model:
- in June, SSRR recorded a series of negative values for the first time since the previous cycle;
- the indicator's smoothed line moved from the overheated zone (late 2024-2025) into the red;
- historically, similar zones coincided with local bottoms (2019, 2023);
- the current price has already recovered to around $66,000, and the indicator has begun to turn upward.
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At the same time, the analyst emphasizes that «a red signal does not mean an automatic reversal», but merely points to a phase of deep stress.
Confirmation of stabilization would be holding the price above $60,000 and a further rise of the SSRR smoothed line. The negative scenario is the appearance of new red values at lower levels.
In parallel, the CVDD model shows a structural cycle «floor» at $48,000. This is a long-term estimate based on the accumulated value of moved coins, factoring in the time they were inactive.
Key conclusions of the model:
- CVDD is currently at around $48,300;
- throughout history, bitcoin has almost never closed below this boundary;
- this zone is the key fundamental downside risk level;
- as long as the price is above CVDD, the market remains in the lower part of the historical valuation range.
The expert stresses that it is precisely the interplay of the two models that forms the main conclusion: SSRR shows behavioral stress around $60,000, while CVDD defines a structural bottom near $48,000. Together they outline the current accumulation zone but leave the risk of a final test lower.
Other market signals and scenario assessments
Earlier, CryptoQuant recorded a sharp decline in demand for bitcoin — by about 650,000 BTC over the past 30 days. This is one of the lowest demand levels since 2019, and such values have been observed only three times in the past six years.
At the same time, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated that bitcoin may already be near a local bottom around $60,000. He called the asset «digital gold» and confirmed his long-term optimism about its growth.
However, not all market participants share this view.
Market maker Wintermute views the current rise as a technical bounce after a sharp correction rather than the start of a new bull cycle. Experts emphasize that institutional capital continues to exit the market through ETFs and other instruments, and a sustained recovery is possible only if demand returns.
Source: Incrypted
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