On the Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets, the U.S. and Brazil national teams have become clear favorites in their matches at the 2026 World Cup. In parallel, a frenzy flared up on the Kalshi exchange around the US Open golf tournament, which gathered hundreds of millions of dollars.
Prediction markets are increasingly reflecting the course of the 2026 World Cup: after vivid opening matches, the favorites' odds have risen markedly, and trading volumes amount to millions of dollars.
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The U.S. — a confident favorite against Australia
In the Group D match against Australia, the U.S. national team is a clear favorite. Both Polymarket and Kalshi rate a U.S. win at 62%, a draw at 22%, and an Australian success at only 18%. The contract on a U.S. win is trading at $0.61 on Polymarket.
These odds took shape after a confident start by the Americans, who routed Paraguay with a score of 4:1. Australia also began the tournament with a win, unexpectedly beating Turkey 2:0, so both teams came to their head-to-head meeting with three points.
The market volume for this match on Kalshi exceeded $15.9 million, reflecting strong fan interest. A win in the head-to-head meeting effectively opens the road to the playoffs, which is why bets on it are especially active.
Brazil and the other matches of the day
Brazil looks like an even more unequivocal favorite in the match against Haiti. Polymarket rates a Brazilian win at 89% with a contract price of $0.89, while Haiti accounts for only about 4%, and a draw for 8%. The market volume for this game amounted to about $3.64 million.
In the other matches of the day, the alignment also favors the stronger teams. In the Scotland — Morocco pairing, Morocco is the favorite with odds of $0.58, while in the Turkey — Paraguay match the Turks are slightly ahead with a contract price of $0.47.
Brazil, however, did not start the tournament perfectly, playing to a draw with Morocco in the first round. That is why a confident win over Haiti is extremely important for the pentachampions.
Source: BeInCrypto
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